Tuesday, November 27, 2012

This is a clear discontinuity with the previous pattern. I am willing to bet one of my households no




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Last week Patrick launched rental car in hawaii a brilliant and scathing critique of the charge of the RoNs brigade .  He argued rental car in hawaii that times have changed: rental car in hawaii The socio-economic conditions we are currently experiencing (and seem likely to face in the future) are different from those that characterised the recent past.
The RoNS look like a classic case of the general fighting the previous battle, assuming all conditions from that last campaign still hold, but being doomed to fail because he doesn't see how the world has moved on. In this case it is necessary rental car in hawaii to believe that road is always the best mode, that sprawl will continue for ever, and that investing aggressively in both will always provide economic growth. The facts on the ground say otherwise.
I concur; times have changed. Two of my earlier posts ( here and here ) have explored the possibility that changing socio-economic conditions are placing inexorable downwards pressure on the demand for vehicle travel. In the last few days I was reminded rental car in hawaii of just how much the facts on the ground suggest that that times are changing, when I uncovered this dataset  on the MoT website.
These graphs tell a compelling story overall (and for Brownlee s benefit I don t see much fluctuation ). But political digs aside, what s interesting for me personally is how closely these wider trends align with my own transport experience.
In that time I ve done my fair share of walking, cycling, car-sharing, using Auckland s (vastly improved) public transport, sharing rides, and paying for home delivery. Some might read that and feel stressed they prefer a go-anywhere, all-the-time personal vehicle. For those people s benefit I ve rarely felt limited by not owning my own car, indeed rental car in hawaii on occasion I ve just gone out and hired them to go on holiday. And from not owning a car I am now significantly healthier and wealthier than many people rental car in hawaii my age. From where I now sit personal car ownership seems to be more of a hindrance than an enabler of fulfillment rental car in hawaii .
Of course, it s extremely dangerous to view the world around oneself solely through the lens of one s own personal experience; I would never suggest that my transport preferences are typical of the average New Zealander. But while my transport preferences are relatively extreme , I want to emphasise that they have not always rental car in hawaii been so. Moreover, the direction my personal transport preferences have headed seems to be somewhat in step a few other people.
For example, if you analyse the MOT s data then you find that since 2005 NZ s population has increased 316,000, whereas rental car in hawaii the light vehicle fleet has increased by only 142,000. So while our average vehicle ownership is 677 per 1,000 people, the people being added at the margin rental car in hawaii effectively have a vehicle ownership rate of only 449 per 1,000 people. That s a -34% difference in vehicle ownership rates for people rental car in hawaii being added at the margin compared to the base population.
How much of this is also driven by the current economic circumstances? If people actually have secure jobs for example, will they not start buying an extra Pajero as they know they might be able to afford rental car in hawaii the diesel, rental car in hawaii rather than say being on the economic scrapheap, where even the Unitec ad encased bus becomes a luxury!
My gut feeling is some but not much . If you look at those figures, the slow down in the growth in demand for vehicle travel occurred around 2005-2007, which is well before rental car in hawaii the GFC hit and subsequent Great Recession .
But there is an interesting graph in the MoT dataset rental car in hawaii that shows the average age of cars increasingly steadily. That may be because cars are better quality now than they were before and subsequently last longer, or it may be because people cannot afford rental car in hawaii to upgrade their vehicles.
When my wife and I started living together other we each had our own cars, We were living pretty close to town at that point and my car was in a secure car park but hers was on the street. One day someone smashed a window on it and we decided pretty quickly to get rid of it and ever since have been a one car household. When we moved one of our requirements was that we were close to a train station so didn t have to rely on driving. Since we got rid of her old car about 4 years ago, I could probably count on one hand the number of times when a second car would have been useful.
SOVs can sod off. Yes the guilt trip certainly has some role in it when people tell me they commute by car but could just as easily use public transport or walk/cycle then I flip them a slightly rental car in hawaii filthy look followed by a wry grin, as if to suggest you re letting the team down let s have a chat.
Call me self-centred but I think it s time that we collectively accepted that the degree to which people drive is excessive, and that we need to challenge rental car in hawaii that so as to create space for new social norms to emerge. rental car in hawaii Ones that are less vehicle centric.
rental car in hawaii I dunno stu, I just want there to be good options for people to have the choice. Not so interested in guilting or nagging rental car in hawaii people to change. I m really confident that offered a viable alternative more than enough people are not so dumb to not change. In some ways an attitude of compulsion can create resistance.
But personally one on one which is what you are saying this so works, I just point out what it is costing them and what they are missing out on .. i have got a lot of family and friends rental car in hawaii to change their default setting from always drive to how shall we travel? . And its not hard as service improves but also because it is increasingly the fashion.
rental car in hawaii Someone commented here that they did a study that found their was more inelasticity around returning to driving once transit had been tried than from driving to transit rental car in hawaii . would like to see that on post here .anyone?
Yes I do not take the guilt trip business very far because it s not the way to make people rental car in hawaii feel positive rental car in hawaii about change, hence my focus on the wry grin . But I do think it s worth us asking questions of people s underlying assumptions, e.g. when an employer offers free parking. rental car in hawaii So it s more of a question trip than a guilt trip more of a social prod to encourage people to think things through, rather than passively accepting the status quo.
I think that might have been me. I was playing round with trying to autocorrelate fuel prices with driving. My initial analyses looked a bit weird, I realised I was violating a few of the assumptions for that type of analysis, but it certainly seemed that in periods when the fuel price dropped, there was not an increase in driving. When I get some of that mythical spare time , I ll try and polish it up, and perhaps post it here for some sort of peer review
I m sure that the gov is not unhappy with the way our over valued exchange rate is cushioning us from rising full prices, as well as allowing things to still appear not that bad for longer . helping make their reckless accelerated highway building programme from being quite so self-evidently daft.
Is it excessive, though? Really? Auckland is not a city that is conducive to undertaking after-hours community activities courtesy of public transport. So either we say that people are excessively engaged in activities outside the hours when public transport is convenient to use, or we say that Auckland is excessively geared towards supporting a particular, very narrow type of activities and everyone else can either watch their non-work lives whither and die or they can drive.
I ve previously given the example of my partner and myself, two-car household, where it s simply not practical to use public transport for our conflicting social activities. Ellerslie-Castor Bay is bollocks rental car in hawaii by public transport at any hour, never mind trying to come home at 10 or 11 at night, and Ellerslie-Onehunga is only practical on Friday and Saturday nights when the trains run late (but also very infrequently). Should we give up activities from which we derive enjoyment just because we have to drive if we wish to avoid prolonged waits and/or prolonged trips (I worked out that getting from Castor Bay to Ellerslie on a weekday evening will take an hour or more, vs a less-than-20-minute drive).
Good question yes it is, but mainly because of the way that we price 1) roads and 2) parking. To be more specific, there is excessive (in an economic sense) amounts of driving at peak times to destinations where land is scarce but parking is provided rental car in hawaii free.
This is a clear discontinuity with the previous pattern. I am willing to bet one of my households now-less-driven cars that this is not a temporary cup of tea on the relentless march to infinity car ownership and kilometres driven in NZ.
It is completely consistent rental car in hawaii with all OCED countries figures, as indeed was the previous pattern. This is zeitgeist, the spirit of the times, rental car in hawaii and it s amazing to watch as all these different countries fall to the same pattern. Amazing. And that makes its continuation rental car in hawaii all the more predictable; it is indeed a new normal.
Come on MoT look at your own figures, rental car in hawaii face the front now. Time to stop thinking and investing like it s still the auto-age, cos it ain t. Tomorrow does not look like today, and certainly n

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