Wednesday, October 31, 2012
I won't dwell on whether, or to what degree, his white deficit may be attributable to overt or uncon
Collections Barack Obama The American Debate: Counting down to Decision Day As white support declines, Obama refocuses message October 29, 2012 | By Dick Polman, For The Inquirer Image 1 of 2 View Gallery President Obama waving to supporters at the Cleveland airport Thursday. (PABLO MARTINEZ MONSIVAIS nascar race tour packages )
I won't dwell on whether, or to what degree, his white deficit may be attributable to overt or unconscious racism. That debate is ongoing, and I'll leave it to others. Today, I'm simply interested in the racial math. The math alone tells us plenty about Barack Obama's prospects - and about how heavily he's banking on minorities to propel him across the finish line.
America is more racially diverse than ever, and that accelerating trend will resonate politically in the 21st century. Down the road, the overwhelmingly white GOP may find itself on the wrong side of history. But the big question in this election is whether the diverse Democratic electorate is sizable nascar race tour packages enough, and motivated enough, to get Obama rehired.
It's sad, but inescapable, that we have to crunch the numbers on the basis of race. Four years ago Obama drew 43 percent of the white vote, an impressive share for any Democrat - two points higher than John Kerry in 2004, a point higher than Al Gore in 2000, and the same share that Bill Clinton garnered in 1996 - but 43 percent looks like a pipe dream in 2012. The latest polls place Obama at 38 percent.
That's very dicey territory; the consensus is that a competitive Democrat needs, at minimum, 40 percent nascar race tour packages of the white vote. Obama is trying to clear that hurdle, by targeting two white subconstituencies: professional, nascar race tour packages college-educated women (which is why he keeps linking Mitt Romney nascar race tour packages to the conservatives' positions on health issues) and blue-collar whites in key swing states such as Ohio (where Romney has been relentlessly painted as an elitist private-equity guy who can't connect with the average Joe).
But with so little room to maneuver among whites, Obama has no choice but to maximize turnout among nonwhites in the handful of states still up for grabs. He must fashion a rainbow coalition - make a virtue nascar race tour packages out of a necessity. And that tells us so much about where he has been lately, what he has said, and what his people have been doing in the field.
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